Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have very different economic plans—and we can now safely disregard them both. The real question isn’t what’s in the plans, it’s what will be possible once the election’s finally over on Nov. 8.
That depends, of course, on what happens in Congress. Polls and prediction markets now forecast that voters will elect the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, president on Election Day. The odds of Democrats winning the Senate from Republicans are 50/50 or a little better, but the odds of Dems taking the House are only around 20%. So Republicans will most likely control at least one chamber of Congress for the next two years, which means split government much as we’ve had for the last six years.
Clinton’s favored policies are very similar to those of President Obama, who has struggled to get anything meaningful through Congress since 2011, when Republicans took control of both houses of Congress. So Clinton might encounter the same brick wall on Capitol Hill. But a couple of things would be different under a Clinton presidency. First, Clinton is considered a better dealmaker than Obama, and more open to working with Republicans. Second, Republicans may be so chastened by another presidential wipeout that they abandon the obstructionist strategy of recent years and decide it’s time to show voters they’re able to get something done.
If that’s the case, a few important pieces of legislation could get through Congress. Here’s what to watch for:
Corporate tax reform. Clinton has been surprisingly mum on this issue, even though Democrats and Republicans broadly agree that the US corporate tax rate, at 35%, is too high, given that it’s 10 to 20 percentage points lower in many other advanced nations. That gap is the main reason US multinationals hold nearly $2 trillion in profits overseas, money that could be helping juice the American economy, but isn’t.
A corporate tax reform deal would lower the tax rate, close loopholes that some companies use to whittle their tax payments, and possibly offer some kind of tax holiday that allows multinationals to bring foreign profits home at a temporarily low rate, such as 15%. The “carried-interest” provision allowing some investing firms to declare profits as capital gains—which are subject to a lower tax rate than ordinary income—seems endangered, since Democrats hate it and Republicans find it hard to defend. A tax reform deal might also include new limits on corporate inversions—the merger of US firms with foreign companies, for tax-lowering purposes—although a more efficient corporate tax code would reduce or eliminate the incentive for inversions in the first place.
Economist Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics argues that Clinton’s silence on corporate tax reform may actually help it pass, since the issue hasn’t been demagogued and politicized in the campaign. But any effort to streamline and simplify personal-income taxes is probably unlikely, since Dems would demand tax hikes on the wealthy that Republicans are dead-set against.
A minimum wage hike. The federal minimum wage, now $7.25, hasn’t been raised since 2009. Clinton favors a $12 minimum wage, which seems unlikely. But a hike to $9 or so might be plausible, especially if the economy continues to strengthen, limiting the pain businesses would feel if they have to pay it. It also helps that some states and cities already have a minimum wage higher than the federal level, which means they wouldn’t be affected by a federal increase.
Immigration reform. Congress almost passed a sweeping new set of immigration laws in 2014, but some House Republicans blocked it. If Republicans fare even worse among Hispanic voters in 2016 than they have before, it will be a new siren call to do something productive on immigration. The way forward, in general, is to first come up with new ways to secure the southwest border, then establish a legal path to citizenship for an estimated 11 million undocumented people in the country, and finally, establish new pathways to America for foreigners able to make a demonstrable contribution to the US economy (such as investors, entrepreneurs, or well-educated immigrants).
Immigration is an important economic issue because the aging of the US workforce means growth in the supply of labor will diminish. That almost always leads to slower economic growth. The United States also needs new workers to help pay the Social Security and Medicare costs of aging baby boomers, who will bankrupt the system if costs aren’t curtailed or new revenue sources found.
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